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NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Analysis

T Lamont — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 18:47:38 +0000

With the infusion of new talent onto Eastern Conference teams – either through off-season acquisitions or trades – the playoff race east of the Mississippi (for the most part) has become much more intriguing.

There are no less than six teams that are capable of beating each other on any given night, along with the addition of some lower echelon squads which have been making some unexpected noise as well.

Here are the current Eastern Conference standings (as of games played through 3/23 ):

1. Chicago (51-19)

2. Boston (50-20)

3. Miami (49-22)

4. Orlando (46-26)

5. Atlanta (40-32)

6. Philadelphia (37-34)

7. New York (35-36)

8. Indiana (37-40)

After Indiana, there’s no need to look any further. Milwaukee and Charlotte stand two games behind Indiana for the final playoff spot. However, based on the way that they’ve both been playing, they won’t make it. The Bobcats have dropped 8 of their last 10, and Milwaukee, with its current roster, won’t be able to come through in clutch situations (as evidenced by last night’s lost to the lowly Sacramento Kings).

Let’s look at the matchups that would result based on the current standings:

Opening Round

#1 Bulls vs. #8 Pacers- The Bulls are one of the hottest teams in the Association (9-1 in the last 10), with their last two victories coming by a combined 73 points. But the Pacers sent a message in their March 18 game, with a 115-108 win in Indiana. Unfortunately, it won’t mean much when the postseason comes around. The Bulls are simply too strong, and Derrick Rose’s focus will ultimately be too much for the upcoming Pacers. But with Indy playing fairly well and New York tanking a bit, Chicago had better hope that the Knicks don’t slip into the #8 spot. Even though the Bulls have been playing great, facing NY in round one would not be what they deserved from working hard all season.

If Stoudemire and Anthony can co-exist, the Knicks could extend their stay in the playoffs.

#2 Celtics vs. #7 Knicks- Boston is one of the few teams that wouldn’t cringe at facing the Knicks in the opening round. Of course, it would make the Celtics have a tougher-than-expected series, but they wouldn’t be in jeopardy of losing it – as would some of the other teams (i.e. Chicago or Miami). As for the Knicks, they had better pick up their play and make a push for the #6 seed. That would greatly increase their chances of making it into the conference semifinals.

#3 Heat vs. #6 Sixers- Philadelphia is one of the season’s best stories. Doug Collins has this team of youngsters playing together and accepting their roles, which has led to some surprising success. The Sixers are capable of beating playoff-caliber teams (they’ve beaten Boston and Atlanta in the past two weeks), so they won’t back down. But this is a matchup that should allow Miami to coast into the next round by virtue of their talent alone.

#4 Magic vs. #5 Hawks – With Larry Drew as their head coach, the Hawks have clearly regressed. Atlanta has a total of 12 losses of 15+ points this season. Their team is far too talented to lose that badly that often. This year, Joe Johnson and company won’t have the leisure of playing an inexperienced team in the first round (last year, they survived the Bucks 4 games to 3). They’ll be tussling with Dwight Howard and the Magic who, by the way, remain a legit contender to advance to the NBA Finals. And, yes, Mr. Superman will split a lot of MVP votes with Derrick Rose. And, yes, the Hawks will lose.

Conference Semifinals

Bulls vs. Magic- This is a tough, tough matchup for Chicago. The Bulls are tough, but like most teams, they don’t have the ability to single-cover Howard. That also means that Orlando could possibly have their way on the perimeter with good three-point looks. Howard has worked hard to make a discernible improvement in his free-throw shooting, so the success of a ‘Hack-a-Howard’ philosophy would be limited. The Bulls’ only hope for success would be for their smaller bigs to attack Howard, and possibly coax him into foul trouble. The Magic without Howard are like the solar system without the sun, and their offense becomes much more sporadic and unfocused. And, of course, Chicago would have free reign in the paint because Orlando traded the only legit backup (Marcin Gortat) they had for Howard.

Rose has been great this season, but the positional mismatches lean in the favor of Orlando. Orlando is loaded with perimeter weaponry (Turkoglu, Agent Zero, J-Rich, J.J., Jameer), so their productivity will offset Rose’s brilliance from the guard spot. Howard’s interior dominance should prove to be Chicago’s downfall. This series is the Magic’s to lose.

Celtics vs. Heat- Here we go again. This is the battle that everyone wants to see: the ‘old’ Big Three (plus Rondo) versus the ‘new’ Big Three. The only way that this could be better is if a trip to the NBA Finals was on the line (which could happen if the Heat slip into the #4 spot, or the Celtics claim the top spot). Sure, the Celtics have owned the Heat in the regular season, controlling the series with a dominating 3-0 advantage (and an April 10 showdown looming). However, those contests were with their long-time defensive anchor, Kendrick Perkins, still manning the middle. Since Perkins was traded a month, the Celtics have suffered losses to the Clippers, Nets, Rockets, Nuggets and Grizzlies. Even though those are teams that plays inconsistently (save for Denver), they all have an interior presence (Blake Griffin, Brook Lopez, Zach Randolph) or ruthlessly use their athleticism to attack the rim. In either case, that’s not a good sign going against Miami, whose strong suit is ball penetration and possible kick-outs.

How will Garnett and the Celtics function defensively without Perkins?

The Celtics usually put things on cruise control late in the campaign to preserve their health for the postseason, but there’s a different feel to Boston recently. Perkins was the embodiment of Boston’s physicality. In a pick that I wouldn’t have dreamed of making over a month ago, I feel that Boston has relinquished its edge over the Heat. Boston has a lot of pride, but its defensive intensity gave it separation from the opposition. Jeff Green (acquired via the trade with the Thunder) is a good piece for the future, but I don’t see him making an impact in this series. Danny Ainge’s concern about now being able to resign Perk is going to cost his team this year. The Celtics’ perimeter defenders will have to play the series of their lives to get the job done after replacing Perkins with Nenad Krstic or Glen “Big Baby” Davis on the back side. I just don’t see it happening.

Conference Finals

Heat vs. Magic- Are the Heat still on the hunt for some interior playoff help? They should be. If they go with Big Z (Zydrunas Ilgauskas) in the pivot, things could get ugly. Remember when LeBron’s Cavs were smacked in the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals? That was primarily courtesy of Howard having his way with the slow-footed Ilgauskas (and Turkoglu’s superb playmaking). Of course, there’s Erick Dampier and Joel Anthony, who could both get abused and not give Miami a single point. Once again, Howard could control this series, if he quickly recognizes the double-team and stays out of foul trouble. Should Wade and James dominate? Yes. Orlando perimeter defense leaves much to be desired, but they can funnel their man into the middle where Howard would be waiting.

In a tough series, the Magic should make the Heat disappear.

And, at least for this year, Dan Gilbert will exhale.

But with about 10 games remaining for each team, there’s still plenty of jockeying left. Even more so than before, the winners will not be determined by superior talent – because that exists on almost every team in the hunt.

Instead, the focus will lie on the matchups, and how teams are able to exploit them to their benefit. But even with over 70 games played in the season, it’s official…

There’s no clear-cut ‘best’ team in the NBA’s Eastern Conference. And I couldn’t be any more thankful.

Stoudemire for Iguodala Deal Bad For Both Teams

T Lamont — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 02:31:32 +0000

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The trade rumors for Phoenix Sun Amare’ Stoudemire have persisted for some time now, but there have recently been rumblings of the All-Star being swapped along with Leandro Barbosa for Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert.

While the probability of this exchange is not quite clear, it would certainly shake up the rosters of each squad. Here’s the impact of such a move:

Leandro Barbosa...doing what he does best...

For Philadelphia – They would basically be saying “we don’t want defense anymore. We’ve already tried that and it hasn’t gotten us anywhere. Time to try something new.”

And, in theory, they’d be right. But what’s would be very interesting about bringing Stoudemire into town would be his pairing with Elton Brand. Brand has been an big-time underachiever in Philly, with a big-time price tag. With Stoudemire on the roster, that would be two similar types.

Stoudemire, like Brand, makes scoring the ball his main priority. Defense is merely a concern for the rest of his teammates. And please don’t confuse shot-blocking with defense. Stoudemire will block some shots, but you can forget about him moving laterally to contain ball penetration. Or making the proper, on-time rotation when it’s required (other than to block shots).

And what does Leandro Barbosa bring to the table? A guy who will jack it up anytime he touches it. He certainly isn’t gonna play any defense. As a matter of fact, he might as well spell his name “Leanro” because he ain’t got no “D”. It’s a shame that a player, who many regard as the fastest in the NBA, is consistently abused by the opposition.

Wherever he plays, Andre Iguodala will bring his crazy athleticism.

For Phoenix – Andre Iguodala is a good all-around player. He’s not the guy to take your franchise to the next level, however. That’s the main reason that the Sixers are willing to part with the young, extremely athletic swingman. Offensively, he’s still very raw, and for years media pundits have been predicting a break-out season for him. I just don’t see it coming. But from Phoenix’s perspective…as long as they have an able-bodied Steve Nash, he should fit perfectly into what they do. In many ways, he’s a less-skilled version of Grant Hill.

Center Samuel Dalembert is a good shot blocker. He a slightly above average rebounder. Just about everything else he does needs improvement. Dalembert is seven feet tall with long arms, and that’s hard to replace.

What’s the bottom line for this potential deal?

Phoenix picks up some defense and loses some offense. Steve Nash has the ability to make Dalembert look better on the offensive end (as hard as it may seem). But Nash (and the Suns) would greatly miss Stoudemire’s fiery play and versatility on the offensive end. They would have no interior go-to-guy.

Philadelphia turns into a bad shooting team with reduced defense. That can’t be good for Sixers fans. With guards like Allen Iverson and Louis Williams (who both play matador-style defense) and no Dalembert to cover for their mistakes, things will get ugly real fast.

Phoenix would get the better deal here, but ironically, it probably wouldn’t make them a better team.

Remember This???

T Lamont — Fri, 29 May 2009 04:18:18 +0000

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Misleading Playoff Seedings

T Lamont — Sun, 17 May 2009 03:14:17 +0000

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The Nuggets have found limited opposition in their two playoff series.

The NBA’s regular season of 1230 games (30 teams playing 82 games each) is certainly long and drawn. There’s absolutely no argument against that.

If you’re a fan of one particular team, there’s only 82 games that you care about. If you only like watching the tops dogs go head-to-head, then you probably care about roughly 10-20 games each season. Either way, that leaves the vast majority of the NBA schedule as a necessary evil in order to get to the good part – the postseason.

But historically, if there’s one good thing to know about the NBA schedule, it is this: the teams with the best regular-season records traditionally fare the best in the playoffs. How about those 2007 Warriors upending the Mavericks? Remember the Sonics folding to the pressure and losing to the Nuggets in ’94? Well, there are always exceptions. But the bigger theory here is that there is a reason that these moments stick out in your memory. It’s because throughout the history of the NBA playoffs, these have proven to be anomalies.

So, how is this year’s group of playoff contenders living up to this historical reference? At the moment, I’d say that we have some mixed results.

First, let’s look at the expected. The 2009 Eastern Conference playoffs have gone exactly as scripted. Now, we did witness more drama in the first round than we anticipated with the Bulls (No.7 seed) pushing the Celtics (No.2 seed), and the Magic (No.3 seed) chalking up two games to the Sixers (No.6 seed). But the Cavs-Pistons and Hawks-Heat series went according to seeding. in the end, we were left with the top 4 seeds for the conference semifinals – of which the Cavs moved on as expected and the Celtics and Magic are deadlocked. The end result of the Eastern Conference playoff picture would be what we have been accustomed to. We’ll either witness a No.1-No.2 match-up or a No.1-No.3 match-up. Not bad at all.

The Rockets and Lakers are in the midst of a heated battle.

Now for the unexpected – the Western Conference. The biggest shocker (accordingly to regular-season seeding, that is) would have been the Dallas Mavericks upsetting the San Antonio Spurs in round one. While a No.6 ousting a No.3 is not earth-moving, it provided an easier than expected path to the conference finals for the No.2 seeded Denver Nuggets. To put it in perspective, they’ve made it through two rounds without facing a top-4 conference opponent.

That lies in direct contrast to what the Lakers are going through. They’re the No.1 seed out west, but their seocnd round opponent Houston is giving them all they can handle. Although the Rockets were the No.5 seed, it’s actually a fair argument to comfortably present them as one of the top 3 teams in the Western Conference. With Game 7 coming up Sunday afternoon, the Lakers are hoping that would be the highest consideration that we could give them.

Looks like Magic-Sixers is Going Seven Games…

T Lamont — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 19:21:09 +0000

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Would you suspend Dwight Howard for this??