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NBA Western Conference Playoff Analysis

T Lamont — Fri, 08 Apr 2011 14:56:09 +0000

We’ve already taken a tour through the Eastern Conference, and its potential showdowns.

Now, it’s time to do the same with the west side. And admittedly, this will be a much easier process.

As the NBA prepares to embark upon another postseason, there’s a good chance that Laker haters will be disappointed yet again. That’s because – just like the previous three seasons – the Western Conference crown is basically the Lakers’ to lose. Here’s why:

Continuity – With the exception of Ron Artest swapping places with Trevor Ariza, the meaningful pieces within the Lakers’ lineup have remained unchanged. Their time together has undoubtedly produced a certain level of comfort with each other which other teams lack.

Experience – Bryant, Gasol, Bynum, Odom and Fisher provide the Lakers with a boatload of big game experience. Their ability to execute under the pressures of the postseason has already been tested.

Healthy – Los Angeles is coasting into the playoffs, with a relatively clean bill of health. The champs are about as close to full strength as an organization could hope to be at this point in the year.

Momentum – L.A. has won seven straight, and 16 of their last 17. In a nutshell, they are playing great ball at the best possible time.

While the Lakers have the inside track on their fourth consecutive Western Conference title, Phil Jackson will have to make sure that they recall the ABC’s of their team’s success:

“A” is for Artest – After being an enigma for the vast majority of the campaign, Ron-Ron has played inspired hoops on both sides of the floor of late. Jackson will have the unenviable challenge of keeping Artest interested and focused throughout their run.

“B” is for Bench Play – The Western Conference favorites are just that despite some very spotty bench play. Lamar Odom, who would be a starter on any other club, is obviously an ace off the bench. Shannon Brown, who began the season on a tear (including 17 double-figure scoring games prior to Christmas), has fallen on hard times of late. The 6’4″ guard, who scored above his season average six times in February, has only done so twice in March. The rest of the Lakers’ reserves have been space fillers. Players like Steve Blake and Matt Barnes have to do more than start trouble (as they did recently against Dallas).

“C” is for Counteract – While the Lakers sometimes settle for slowing things down, they must take full advantage of opportunities to push the ball. L.A. plays best when its offense is free-flowing, and the ball is moving quickly. The champs must avoid complacency because Kobe Bryant’s instincts to try and single-handedly win games will kick in. And they’ll become vulnerable.

Although Phil Jackson’s crew hold the clear edge, there are other teams in the Western Conference. Let’s take a look at the remaining playoff teams in the conference from most threatening to least (from L.A.’s perspective):

Ibaka (pictured) and Perkins provide the Thunder with great interior defense and rebounding.

Oklahoma City Thunder- This may be a bit surprising, but, yes, they do edge out the San Antonio Spurs. Why? Besides experience, the Thunder have all of the key components of a future title contender. They have a top notch scorer and MVP candidate in ‘the Durantula’. They have a game-breaking point guard who creates mismatches on a nightly basis in Russell Westbrook. They have bench support in James Harden (12.0 ppg), Daequan Cook (three-point specialist) and Eric Maynor (capable, skilled backup point guard).

But perhaps most importantly, Oklahoma City has the big bodies that can physically match up with the Lakers. Nick Collison, Serge Ibaka and Nazr Mohammed formed a serviceable trio in the Thunder frontcourt, but the addition of Kendrick Perkins really gives them quality depth.

So, Scott Brooks’ team is only some quality experience away from catching the Lake Show.

San Antonio Spurs- Rightfully, the Spurs have moved past the ‘Tim Duncan era’, and into the ‘Tony Parker-George Hill-Manu Ginobili era’. San Antonio has upped its tempo, and has reaped the benefits of making the adjustment. What remains questionable is exactly how this will translate into postseason basketball. Duncan has traditionally been the playoff workhorse, and how Gregg Popovich elects to use him this time around will be quite interesting.

The Spurs got manhandled by the Lakers in their latest Sunday ABC showdown (March 6), by a score that actually belittled the degree to which Los Angeles dominated the contest. They’ll tussle on April 12 in L.A. in a matchup that both teams will either use as a statement, or render meaningless and rest their big minute players. Regardless, the Spurs chances of dethroning the Lakers revolve around their ability to control the game’s tempo. And as we saw with Phoenix in last year’s conference finals, that’s a game plan that will only work for so long.

Dallas Mavericks- The Mavericks and Lakers engaged in a heated battle last Thursday night. Dallas was nip and tuck with Los Angeles in the Staples center for more than two and a half quarters of the game. In the third quarter, the contest took a turn and became more physical. On a drive to the bucket, Steve Blake was fouled by Jason Terry. In an act of frustration, Blake was effortlessly shoved to the ground by the Mavs second leading scorer. Blake returned to his feet, and got nose to nose with Terry – and the fireworks began to spark. Matt Barnes, who seems to be useless otherwise, came to life and found a way to get tossed from the game.

From that point forward, the Lakers ran away with the game. They got physical and Dallas had no answer. It was almost as if the Mavs were punked. In fact, that’s exactly what it was. When Chris Webber calls a team ”soft”…well, they’re pretty much soft.

Everyone knows that the Mavs aren’t a serious contender for the Western title. The Lakers know it. The Mavs know it. You know it. I know it. And C-Webb knows it.

By virtue of their combined experience, size and/or talent, the remaining playoff teams in the West just can’t compete. Here’s the rest of the participants:

Denver Nuggets – While the Thunder might be the team that matches up best with the champs, their seeding (probably in the fourth spot) will subject them to a tough first-round battle. In what could be the most playoff series that we’ve seen in some time, the Thunder and Nuggets are more than likely going to square off in an opening round Western Conference series.

It’s become a well-versed topic these days that George Karl’s crew is better without Carmelo Anthony. It’s an assessment that is easily proven from a quantitative perspective – the Nuggets are 14-4 in their last 18 games. Of those four losses, only one came against a potential non-playoff opponent (L.A. Clippers). The Nuggets held their own in their last three games – beating L.A. and Dallas, while losing to OKC. But they seem to be a team that is much more relaxed since dealing a player who everyone thinks is one of the top five in the league. All I have to say is that if you get rid of a top five player, you should in no way be a better team. But somehow, the Nuggets are.

New Orleans Hornets – Like a penny with a hole in it? That’s about how hopeless the Hornets are in this year’s postseason. David West is gone. Sure, Carl Landry can fill most of the productivity void left by West. Chris Paul runs things for the Hornets, but his lack of size brings about the need for another scorer who can always get off his shots. Landry cannot give New Orleans clutch offensive play, and he does not have the ability to carry his team for long stretches.

Oh, and the Hornets are playing either the Lakers or the Mavs to open the postseason. These are both too tough for a team missing a top scorer.

Portland Trailblazers – Nate McMillan better not have his team cruise to the finish line of the regular season. His Blazers are well equipped to make some playoff noise, particularly if they fight to the finish and get the #6 position in the conference. That would probably mean a date with Dallas, a much preferred opponent than Los Angeles. Unlike New Orleans, Portland would have a real chance at taking down the Mavericks and advancing to the semifinals. In fact, I think that the Blazers could really be the favorites in that series.

Batum is part of a lengthy frontcourt that can match up with any team.

Portland has an experienced backcourt with Andre Miller and the ‘mature-beyond-his-years’ Wesley Matthews. They also have great frontcourt length in Marcus Camby, LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum. The bench has been boosted with the likes of a deteriorated Brandon Roy, the versatile Rudy Fernandez, and a trade-deadline steal in Gerald Wallace. Beware Dallas – you may experience yet another first-round flame out.

Memphis Grizzlies- Finally! The talented team clinched a spot in the playoffs for the first time in years, thanks to Zach Randolph. Did I really just say that? Not long ago, Randolph was labeled as borderline thug, and as a clear disruptive force to any team that he played on. But Z-Bo has proven to be the glue that has helped Memphis overcome many potential pitfalls:

a huge injury to starter and All-Star talent Rudy Gay
roster juggling – including the pick-up of Shane Battier, moving of O.J. Mayo to the bench and increased minutes for Tony Allen
a team loaded with lesser experienced players

Given what he’s done for the Grizzlies this season, Randolph should be worried. Not making the All-Star team this time around might mean that he’ll be hard pressed to ever make it. He gives Memphis a degree of toughness that will be required against San Antonio (in their anticipated first-round series). Of course, the Spurs will get the job done. Having a workhorse like Allen and the experience of Battier is nice, but not having a creative, athletic talent – and big shot maker (listen to the crowd after the swish) - on the wing will be a killer. But hey – Memphis took a leap forward this season, and they should be able to build on it.

Where Should Carmelo Play the Rest of this Season?

T Lamont — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 19:00:47 +0000

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The on-again, off-again, and now, back on-again trade rumors involving Carmelo Anthony have consumed the media, the Denver Nuggets and the NBA season, in general.

Anyone following the man has seen that Anthony has been on a tear of late. In the last two weeks, the All-Star forward has posted games of 38, 42 and 50 points. While the Nuggets having been looking all that attractive (from a recent win-loss perspective), ‘Melo certainly has.

This whole scenario is all about what Denver feels that they can pry from another team for Anthony. The Nets have the best assets – mainly combinations of young players and draft picks – to entice the Nuggets, and they have intimated reports of rekindling their courtship of the Baltimore native.

There looks to be three (or more, according to Anthony) teams that have discussed dealings with Denver. However…

…what’s the best scenario for ‘Melo?

New York? Wrong.

New Jersey? Try again.

Los Angeles? Three strikes. You’re out.

It’s none of the above.

NBA fans have been holding their collective breaths to see where 'Melo will end up.

Carmelo Anthony needs to focus on playing basketball and presenting a showcase that interested organizations can continue to drool over. The best scenario for Anthony is to ride this wave out into the summer and become a free agent. This would be a nightmare for Denver’s upper management, because they won’t be able to handpick the talent that they want to have on their roster.

But as a free agent - ’Melo could sit back and let everyone hit him with their best offer. His choices wouldn’t be limited and he could choose money, location, the best chance at a title, or the best combination of any two or all three of those deciding factors. He shouldn’t get caught up in going anywhere quickly, because a hasty decision usually turns out to be a regrettable one.

So, the next time a reporter questions Anthony about his possible destinations, pay close attention to his response. Watch how cleverly he stays away from giving a preferred location.

That’s because deep down, Anthony knows what’s best for him.

And that’s for him to go nowhere.

Does Carmelo Care That the Nuggets Could Be a Force?

T Lamont — Sat, 13 Nov 2010 00:21:34 +0000

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On Thursday night in Denver, what normally happens didn’t happen.

Normally, the Los Angeles Lakers cruise into the fourth quarter with a lead. They did that last night, leading the Denver Nuggets by a score of 93-85.

In the fourth quarter, the Lakers allow Kobe Bryant to freely shoot – figuring that he provides L.A. with its best chance at exiting the stadium victorious. They did that last night.

Bryant traditionally makes all of the big shots down the stretch. He didn’t do that last night.

The player universally regarded as the NBA’s best clutch player stepper out of his role for one night. He tossed up six misses in the game’s final six minutes as the Lakers dropped their first game of the year to Denver, 118-112. But this aberration isn’t as meaningful to the Lakers as it is to the Nuggets.

Denver is a team in turmoil. It is currently being held hostage by superstar Carmelo Anthony, and his refusal to handle his desire to play elsewhere in a more discrete fashion. Anthony wants to play somewhere else. On Tuesday night in Indiana, it was like he was playing somewhere else. Visiting one of the worst defensive teams in the league, Anthony threw up this stinker:

5-15 FG, 13 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists in 28 minutes
Denver had a -26 point differential when he was in the game

Fast forward to Thursday night. ‘Melo put up 32 (14-25 FG shooting), and he did it much more efficiently than did Bryant (11-32 FG). Anthony has long been regarded as one of the game’s most versatile scorers…he can get 20-25 points just by going through the motions on the hardwood. But in removing L.A. from the ranks of the unbeaten, Anthony did his best impersonation of Bryant. He scored three baskets and two free throws in the final four and a half minutes of the contest to put the game on ice in the Pepsi Center.

A win like this is usually a sign of promise – a signal of what could happen if the team continues to work together to a common goal. The fact is that Denver was able to come up with this win without two major pieces to their puzzle – big man Chris Andersen and versatile defender Kenyon Martin. The roster is talented, and contains just enough toughness to cause some headaches for the Lakers. Just two years ago, the Nuggets were able to push the Lakers to a six-game Western Conference Finals series. After being eliminated in the first round last season by the Utah Jazz, there was lots of disappointment. But Denver is returning the majority of the cast that made the deep playoff run two seasons ago.

This is a year in which we have yet to witness any Western Conference team that is guaranteed to challenge for that #2 spot out west. New Orleans is currently playing above its head, but no one expects them to maintain their current level of play. Same goes for the Golden State Warriors at 6-3. The Spurs will somehow make it into the playoffs, but their old legs will prevent them from truly challenging L.A. Dallas has done nothing for the past few years, except for under-exceed their expectations. All in all, it sums up to an NBA campaign that could be very special for the Denver Nuggets and their fans.

But toss in nights like the aforementioned one in Indiana. Being guarded by the likes of Danny Granger would hardly intimidate Anthony. And ‘Melo let Granger eat him up on the offensive end and have an efficient 8-10 night from the field, including 3-4 from deep, for 19 points.

'Melo is one of the few offensive forces that can make Kobe break a sweat on defense.

This makes us wonder…does Anthony care?

That’s the question that sits soundly in his lap. Does he care that he has the potential to outshine Alex English, the franchise’s biggest star? Does he care that any title that he could manage to bring to Denver would be the first in franchise history? Does he care that getting traded will mean that he will have to establish chemistry with new teammates? Does he care that he will not be any closer to a championship if he moves to the Eastern Conference?

Anthony is something special. Of all the other mega-stars in the league, only one player other than ‘Melo can boast that his team has made the playoffs each year he has been in the league (Dwyane Wade). But Anthony’s desire to play elsewhere really doesn’t make much sense – from any perspective. He’ll be less likely to average as many points per game as he has the potential to in the up-tempo style adopted by Denver. He’ll also be a part of an organization that will have fewer wins than he would have had with the Nuggets. So, from an individual and team-based standpoint, it’s a lose-lose situation for ‘Melo.

That’s what makes this whole situation so perplexing. The former Syracuse star is leaving tons of money and success on the table…and all for what?

Who knows how Anthony will feel a week from now. Or two weeks from now. Or four months from now.

But he owes it to his team to continue to play as if he’ll be there in the end. Even if he knows that he won’t.

Nets Working On Bringing ‘Melo to the East

T Lamont — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 01:48:25 +0000

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Hold your breath New York natives. The latest superstar engulfed in trade rumors could finally your way.

The New Jersey Nets have submitted a trade proposal to the Denver Nuggets in an attempt to pry away All-Star small forward Carmelo Anthony.

After a season that saw them post a league worst 12-70 record, the New Jersey Nets have been in the center of off-season rumors. The Nets feverishly made pitches for all of the league’s top free agents this summer, hoping to land at least one one the big names to complement a capable point guard (Devin Harris), an up-and-coming center (Brook Lopez) and a youngster with one of the highest ceilings in this year’s NBA Draft (Derrick Favors). The roster is also littered with young, unproven players who are hungry, but loaded with quickness and athleticism.

But just how much is Anthony worth?

Reports on the story have surfaced rather abruptly without a ton of detail, but the Nets are rumored to be parting with Favors, Harris and a 2012 first-round pick.

The deal is currently awaiting approval from Denver. But if it is approved – based on these preliminary reports (and they are definitely preliminary) – the Nets would presumably place the following starting lineup on the floor to open the season:

PG – Jordan Farmar

SG – Terrence Williams

SF – Carmelo Anthony

PF – Troy Murphy

C – Brook Lopez

While having Harris and Favors in the lineup wouldn’t have elevated them to a playoff-potential team, the long term prospects are certainly a lot greater.

If the Nets want to acquire 'Melo, they may have to part ways with point guard Devin Harris.

The Nets not having to ship Murphy’s expiring contract has been described as a silver lining in the agreement, and a possible way that New Jersey could bring another superstar to town – namely New Orleans point guard Chris Paul.

If things do work out that way, we’d be looking at another creation of potential superpowers. But the truth is that 82 games would have to be played, and that would be a long season indeed for Anthony. With the projected lineup assembled above, there would surely be lots of frustration for ‘Melo. How would he react to not sniffing the playoffs for the first time in his NBA career? It’s been quite a while since Anthony has been on a mediocre squad. Denver has consistently made the postseason. Anthony led the Syracuse Orangemen to an NCAA championship. His high school team at Oak Hill Academy was (and still is) one of the national hoops powerhouses.

And if things don’t pan out for the Nets – and they aren’t able to get any other big names in the next year – will ‘Melo be wondering what could have been in Denver? The Nuggets may need to toughen up defensively, but two seasons ago – with practically the same roster that they have now – they were challenging the NBA champion Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. An acquisition and some other tweaks, and Denver could have been that close to making their presence felt near the top of the conference again.

Over the next few days, we hould know whether New York will get what they have craved for so long.

Something that renders them as relevant in the world of basketball.

Is Carmelo Really Worth the Fuss?

T Lamont — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 13:37:00 +0000

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What can ‘Melo do for you?

That is the question being posed to teams that are in the hunt for Carmelo Anthony, who is now being officially shopped around by the Denver Nuggets.

First off, it seems to me like Anthony is passing up a good thing in the Mile High City. Denver is indeed the type of town that cherishes the heroes that bring success to them. And while Anthony may never have brought the Nuggets the ultimate NBA glory, he is certainly on the path to sit alongside Alex English, John Elway, Patrick Roy and Terrell Davis in Colorado sports history.

Despite this, ‘Melo is following the popular trend and researching his options to move elsewhere.

Anthony is undoubtedly a supreme talent – particularly on the offensive end. In fact, there are only four players in the NBA who I would rate with equal or higher offensive ability, and in no particular order they are – Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Dwyane Wade. However, Anthony could outscore any of those players on any given night.

But although ‘Melo is a beast scoring the rock, teams had better beware the following problems that he could bring:

Offensive Imbalance

Anthony is a complete offensive weapon, who requires many different looks to get his points. He is that rare player who swishes jumpers, breaks down opponents off the dribble and posts up on the block with equal effectiveness. It works perfectly for Denver, who have developed their scheme around his versatility. For other teams, however, this could pose a dilemma.

Lala has been giving us more updates about Anthony's decision-making process than he has.

Teams that contain players with pre-defined roles may find that Carmelo will overstep his bounds within their offense. It won’t be intentional, but Anthony is used to extreme offensive freedom in the free-flowing scheme that was employed by George Karl.

Defensive Ineptitude

OK, let’s flat out call this what it is – - Anthony doesn’t want to play defense. ‘Melo is quick enough, strong enough and smart enough to be one of the top defenders in the league, but he doesn’t have the heart for it. Anthony has always reserved all of his extra effort for the offensive end of the court. And now that he is a seven-year NBA veteran, that characteristic is not going to change. Thus, ‘Melo requires his team to acquire a player who will embrace covering the opposition’s best wing player.

Leadership

Anthony is a leader by example on the court – at least when he has the ball in his hands. But the real question regarding Carmelo is whether he is good enough to be the guy on a team, and lead them to an NBA title. Facts are facts, and the fact is that Anthony was unable to lead his squad to a first-round series win over a Utah Jazz team that was suffering from injuries to its best players. Like his good buddy LeBron James, we won’t know whether he could do it or not and, also like King James, he’s not giving us the chance to. The odds are that ‘Melo will end up being traded to a team that has at least one more quality player. Anthony is at his best when his decision-making is uncompromised. Teams that are after him had better notice this and prepare their game plans accordingly.

Carmelo Anthony is without question one of the premiere superstars in today’s NBA. But his suitors will have to ask themselves:

Just how much is ‘Melo worth??