Ball or Nuthin' » Magic

Orlando’s Still Not a Real Contender

T Lamont — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 05:03:37 +0000

Now we see just why Dwight Howard tossed his name into the trade arena.

In the midst of a game that had all of the makings of a blowout, the Magic found a way to squander a 27-point advantage and lose – at home.

Against perennial rival Boston, Orlando had their way in the opening half. They executed, hustled and shot themselves ahead of a Celtics team that was missing its starting backcourt (Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen).

What happened in the second half, however, was nothing short of abysmal.

Stan Van Gundy allowed his team to lose focus, both offensively and defensively.

Orlando’s offense usually flows when they operate from the inside-out, taking full advantage of its nightly physical mismatch at the center position. But the reigning Defensive Player of the Year rarely saw anything come his way on the block, and the Magic lost focus in a game in which they should have cruised to victory.

Dwight Howard will have a difficult time pointing Orlando in the right direction.

The Magic went overboard to help Boston generate offense of its own, as well. Turnovers, quick shots and poor rotations highlighted some of the mental miscues that signaled their demise.

The 2011-12 season is one that will be pivotal to the success of the Orlando franchise. Howard is a hot commodity on the trade radar, and one would have to assume that a mediocre showing by his team will push him out of the door.

If tonight’s game was any indication as to what can be expected of this current assembly of players, Orlando’s in big, big trouble come April.

And in even more trouble come the 2012-13 season and beyond.

Same Players, Different Result for Hawks

T Lamont — Fri, 29 Apr 2011 18:14:53 +0000

Get Shareaholic

The enigma of the Atlanta Hawks continues.

There’s certainly no surprise that the Hawks, an ultra-talented team, have sent the Magic fishing. But, at the same time, it is a surprise.

Over the past few years, if there’s one thing that Atlanta had firmly established about itself, it has been that they are disturbingly inconsistent. Last year, the Hawks were good enough to sweep their season series with the Boston Celtics, but somehow required seven games to advance past the first round of the postseason (they outlasted the Milwaukee Bucks).

Atlanta’s former head coach, Mike Woodson, pulled the Hawks from the league’s basement, and turned them into a playoff team. But was it really him? Or was it talent from years of lottery picks? Or perhaps a huge free-agent purchase half a decade ago? It’s no secret that in the midst of the team’s development into an annual playoff participant, Woodson clashed with some of the Hawks’ best players.

Last season was clearly the best regular season effort that Atlanta had put together in quite some time. The bar of expectations was raised, simply based on the familiarity that roster members should have had with one another, as well as the maturity that each player should have made individually. However, a nip-and-tuck series with the Bucks made many wonder how an undersized, inexperienced, undermanned team like Milwaukee – who were without center Andrew Bogut – could come so close to taking down Atlanta.

And then, the bottom dropped out.

Smith and Horford match up favorably with Chicago's frontcourt of Noah and Boozer.

In the Eastern Conference semifinals, the Hawks set playoff series futility records against the Orlando Magic. To say that the Magic utterly destroyed Atlanta would be a huge understatement. Woodson’s squad were swept – losing the four games by a total of 101 points.

It certainly appeared as if the Hawks had maxed out their potential.

Now, of course, after such an embarrassing defeat, something has to change. Atlanta let Woodson walk, and brought in a fresh, new coach in Larry Drew – with ‘fresh and new’ meaning a very lightweight resume as far as NBA head coaches are concerned.

What else changed? Nothing. Seriously?

There were no significant roster changes to improve their standing among the elite beasts of the East. Miami now had ‘the Big Three.’ Boston had ‘the Fantastic Four.’ Orlando still had their MVP candidate (Dwight Howard), and a team that crushed Atlanta when it mattered most. And Chicago had renewed hope with roster additions and an improving Derrick Rose.

Predictably, the Hawks finished this regular season fifth in the conference, behind each of those teams. And guess who was knocking on their door for an opening-round series?

Howard certainly got his, but no other Magic players did.

A couple of years ago, the Boston Celtics established the blueprint on how to defeat Orlando – with single-coverage of Howard. Not doubling him on the touch stifles the Magic’s offense output for the following reasons:

- It discourages ball movement, keeping the rock of Howard’s – occasionally unsure – hands

- It encourages Howard to attempt offensive moves that he has yet to perfect

- It results in possessions in which Howard is fouled (instead of possessions where a basket is made, or a better free throw shooter is fouled)

Atlanta – with new coach Drew – obviously noted that, because it was that difference in defensive philosophy that kept the Magic at bay this time around. Orlando, a team loaded with exceptional long-range bombers, only shot 27% from beyond the arc in the series. Drew focused his team’s individual defensive responsibility, stressing that they not overreact to perceived mismatches. The Hawks used their length and athleticism to shadow the Magic’s perimeter players.

The Hawks will now move on to battle the conference’s #1 seed, the Chicago Bulls, led by their superstar and MVP candidate, the aforementioned Rose. Unlike most teams, Atlanta is equipped with the personnel to make things tough for Rose. Kirk Hinrich, a former teammate of Rose’s, is a tough, smart defender. If he’s able to shake off the apparent injury that he suffered last night, his ability to play offense and defense could be key for Atlanta. Al Horford and Josh Smith provide just as much strength and even more athleticism than Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer.

This Atlanta team has a real chance to knock off Chicago, and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time (since they’ve been the “Atlanta Hawks”).

And it’s all thanks to the one change that they made.

And the many others that they didn’t.

Lakers, Spurs Among Favorites to Lose Game 1′s

T Lamont — Tue, 19 Apr 2011 15:38:34 +0000

Get Shareaholic

Opening weekend of the NBA Playoffs just passed, and the games certainly lived up to their billing.

However, some teams were left scratching their heads and being thankful that the Association hasn’t adopted a March Madness style, one-and-done format. Among those startling losers were (in order of most surprising to least):

The Los Angeles Lakers

Now, of course, no one is worried that L.A. will lose this series. On the way to the championship last season, the Lakers dropped a pair of games in two different conference series (not to mention going the distance in the Finals). It definitely hasn’t been an uncommon occurrence to witness the Lakers needing to be humbled before getting their act together.

However, for them to drop Game 1 at home, is rather surprising – even by their complacent standards. It’s perhaps the most unpredictable of this weekend’s upsets – given the relatively unskilled nature of New Orleans frontcourt players.

CP3 was the latest point guard to put in work against the Lakers.

But what wasn’t surprising was witnessing the title favorites get dominated by an elite point guard. Chris Paul absolutely had his way in the Staples Center, owning Derek Fisher, Pau Gasol and anyone in a gold jersey that he crossed paths with on Sunday. CP3 made his bigs look as if they belonged in the NBA, much like he has done throughout his NBA career. On the flip side, the Lakers’ inability to control top flight floor generals has been a well documented problem. It’s one that they will overcome against the Hornets, however, due to their lack of supporting depth and size. Nevertheless, a more complete opponent with a treacherous trigger man (think Oklahoma City) could spell serious trouble for Phil Jackson’s bunch.

Orlando Magic

The Atlanta Hawks were straight up-and-down embarrassed by the Magic in the conference semifinals last season. They lost four straight games by a total of 101 points. Dayum.

What have they done since that infamous butt-whoopin’?

Let Woodson walk, and hire a cheap inexperienced head coach in Larry Drew. They traded Mike Bibby for Kirk Hinrich. And that’s basically it.

So, how can we explain the confidence with which they dispatched the Magic in Game 1?

They single-covered Dwight Howard. Orlando has always been as its best when it runs its offense through the 2010-11 NBA Defensive Player of the Year. He towers over the defense, and can make kick-out passes to knock-down three-point shooters out on the perimeter. That’s precisley how the Magic smoked the Hawks a year ago.

But what if a team single-covers Superman, forcing him to be Orlando’s offense? Well, the outcome is a 46-point, 19-rebound effort for the NBA’s most dominant interior force – and a loss for his team. Jameer Nelson was a good sidekick, contributing 27 points of his own. But no one else on the team scored more than six points. Contrast that to Atlanta, which had a pair of twenty-point scorers and a total of five players in double figures, and it’s easy to see that Drew should stick to this defensive philosophy for as long as he has bodies that can absorb the contact that Howard will deliver. And if Howard continues to shoot like he did in the series opener, that will serve as icing on the cake for the Hawks.

San Antonio Spurs

Watching the Grizzlies battle the Clippers on the last day of the regular season should have incensed Gregg Popovich.

With or without Ginobili, the Spurs will have a tough series with the Grizzlies.

In perhaps the most clear-cut display of throwing a game in the history of the league, Memphis allowed itself to get manhandled by Blake Griffin and company. Trailing by 20+ points for three and a half quarters, the Grizzlies put on a faux-run to close the game and make it appear as if they were giving effort. I’d seriously doubt if anyone bought it, though.

That loss locked them into the eighth slot and secured a first-round date with the Spurs – a team with which they split the regular season series at two games apiece.

The other alternative? Win the game, get the seventh seed and square off against L.A. Ahem.

But when the Spurs got taken down by the Memphis Grizzlies on Sunday, pundits were quick to point out the fact that the Spurs did not play Manu Ginobili.

So what? The Grizzlies didn’t play Rudy Gay. O.K., yes, Gay is out for the remainder of this campaign, but the point is that Memphis was unable to trot out its best lineup at the Alamodome, too. The truth about San Antonio’s loss should dishearten its fans. The Spurs withstood what the Grizzlies were giving them right down to the end. They made the run to seize control of the contest, which everyone knew they would. They established a manageable four-point advantage late in the fourth quarter. And yet, Memphis still found a way to win Game 1.

It’s the kind of thing that happens to teams that play against the Spurs, but not to the Spurs themselves. Mike Conley proved his worth (although his contract remains to be out of this world), Shane Battier illustrated his status as a professional, and the new twin towers (Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol) totally overmatched an aging Tim Duncan and whoever else played alongside him. The Spurs have lots of fight in them, but they are fighting against a team that knows they can win this series.

And as G.I. Joe would say, “…knowing is half the battle…”

NBA Eastern Conference Playoff Analysis

T Lamont — Thu, 24 Mar 2011 18:47:38 +0000

Get Shareaholic

With the infusion of new talent onto Eastern Conference teams – either through off-season acquisitions or trades – the playoff race east of the Mississippi (for the most part) has become much more intriguing.

There are no less than six teams that are capable of beating each other on any given night, along with the addition of some lower echelon squads which have been making some unexpected noise as well.

Here are the current Eastern Conference standings (as of games played through 3/23 ):

1. Chicago (51-19)

2. Boston (50-20)

3. Miami (49-22)

4. Orlando (46-26)

5. Atlanta (40-32)

6. Philadelphia (37-34)

7. New York (35-36)

8. Indiana (37-40)

After Indiana, there’s no need to look any further. Milwaukee and Charlotte stand two games behind Indiana for the final playoff spot. However, based on the way that they’ve both been playing, they won’t make it. The Bobcats have dropped 8 of their last 10, and Milwaukee, with its current roster, won’t be able to come through in clutch situations (as evidenced by last night’s lost to the lowly Sacramento Kings).

Let’s look at the matchups that would result based on the current standings:

Opening Round

#1 Bulls vs. #8 Pacers- The Bulls are one of the hottest teams in the Association (9-1 in the last 10), with their last two victories coming by a combined 73 points. But the Pacers sent a message in their March 18 game, with a 115-108 win in Indiana. Unfortunately, it won’t mean much when the postseason comes around. The Bulls are simply too strong, and Derrick Rose’s focus will ultimately be too much for the upcoming Pacers. But with Indy playing fairly well and New York tanking a bit, Chicago had better hope that the Knicks don’t slip into the #8 spot. Even though the Bulls have been playing great, facing NY in round one would not be what they deserved from working hard all season.

If Stoudemire and Anthony can co-exist, the Knicks could extend their stay in the playoffs.

#2 Celtics vs. #7 Knicks- Boston is one of the few teams that wouldn’t cringe at facing the Knicks in the opening round. Of course, it would make the Celtics have a tougher-than-expected series, but they wouldn’t be in jeopardy of losing it – as would some of the other teams (i.e. Chicago or Miami). As for the Knicks, they had better pick up their play and make a push for the #6 seed. That would greatly increase their chances of making it into the conference semifinals.

#3 Heat vs. #6 Sixers- Philadelphia is one of the season’s best stories. Doug Collins has this team of youngsters playing together and accepting their roles, which has led to some surprising success. The Sixers are capable of beating playoff-caliber teams (they’ve beaten Boston and Atlanta in the past two weeks), so they won’t back down. But this is a matchup that should allow Miami to coast into the next round by virtue of their talent alone.

#4 Magic vs. #5 Hawks – With Larry Drew as their head coach, the Hawks have clearly regressed. Atlanta has a total of 12 losses of 15+ points this season. Their team is far too talented to lose that badly that often. This year, Joe Johnson and company won’t have the leisure of playing an inexperienced team in the first round (last year, they survived the Bucks 4 games to 3). They’ll be tussling with Dwight Howard and the Magic who, by the way, remain a legit contender to advance to the NBA Finals. And, yes, Mr. Superman will split a lot of MVP votes with Derrick Rose. And, yes, the Hawks will lose.

Conference Semifinals

Bulls vs. Magic- This is a tough, tough matchup for Chicago. The Bulls are tough, but like most teams, they don’t have the ability to single-cover Howard. That also means that Orlando could possibly have their way on the perimeter with good three-point looks. Howard has worked hard to make a discernible improvement in his free-throw shooting, so the success of a ‘Hack-a-Howard’ philosophy would be limited. The Bulls’ only hope for success would be for their smaller bigs to attack Howard, and possibly coax him into foul trouble. The Magic without Howard are like the solar system without the sun, and their offense becomes much more sporadic and unfocused. And, of course, Chicago would have free reign in the paint because Orlando traded the only legit backup (Marcin Gortat) they had for Howard.

Rose has been great this season, but the positional mismatches lean in the favor of Orlando. Orlando is loaded with perimeter weaponry (Turkoglu, Agent Zero, J-Rich, J.J., Jameer), so their productivity will offset Rose’s brilliance from the guard spot. Howard’s interior dominance should prove to be Chicago’s downfall. This series is the Magic’s to lose.

Celtics vs. Heat- Here we go again. This is the battle that everyone wants to see: the ‘old’ Big Three (plus Rondo) versus the ‘new’ Big Three. The only way that this could be better is if a trip to the NBA Finals was on the line (which could happen if the Heat slip into the #4 spot, or the Celtics claim the top spot). Sure, the Celtics have owned the Heat in the regular season, controlling the series with a dominating 3-0 advantage (and an April 10 showdown looming). However, those contests were with their long-time defensive anchor, Kendrick Perkins, still manning the middle. Since Perkins was traded a month, the Celtics have suffered losses to the Clippers, Nets, Rockets, Nuggets and Grizzlies. Even though those are teams that plays inconsistently (save for Denver), they all have an interior presence (Blake Griffin, Brook Lopez, Zach Randolph) or ruthlessly use their athleticism to attack the rim. In either case, that’s not a good sign going against Miami, whose strong suit is ball penetration and possible kick-outs.

How will Garnett and the Celtics function defensively without Perkins?

The Celtics usually put things on cruise control late in the campaign to preserve their health for the postseason, but there’s a different feel to Boston recently. Perkins was the embodiment of Boston’s physicality. In a pick that I wouldn’t have dreamed of making over a month ago, I feel that Boston has relinquished its edge over the Heat. Boston has a lot of pride, but its defensive intensity gave it separation from the opposition. Jeff Green (acquired via the trade with the Thunder) is a good piece for the future, but I don’t see him making an impact in this series. Danny Ainge’s concern about now being able to resign Perk is going to cost his team this year. The Celtics’ perimeter defenders will have to play the series of their lives to get the job done after replacing Perkins with Nenad Krstic or Glen “Big Baby” Davis on the back side. I just don’t see it happening.

Conference Finals

Heat vs. Magic- Are the Heat still on the hunt for some interior playoff help? They should be. If they go with Big Z (Zydrunas Ilgauskas) in the pivot, things could get ugly. Remember when LeBron’s Cavs were smacked in the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals? That was primarily courtesy of Howard having his way with the slow-footed Ilgauskas (and Turkoglu’s superb playmaking). Of course, there’s Erick Dampier and Joel Anthony, who could both get abused and not give Miami a single point. Once again, Howard could control this series, if he quickly recognizes the double-team and stays out of foul trouble. Should Wade and James dominate? Yes. Orlando perimeter defense leaves much to be desired, but they can funnel their man into the middle where Howard would be waiting.

In a tough series, the Magic should make the Heat disappear.

And, at least for this year, Dan Gilbert will exhale.

But with about 10 games remaining for each team, there’s still plenty of jockeying left. Even more so than before, the winners will not be determined by superior talent – because that exists on almost every team in the hunt.

Instead, the focus will lie on the matchups, and how teams are able to exploit them to their benefit. But even with over 70 games played in the season, it’s official…

There’s no clear-cut ‘best’ team in the NBA’s Eastern Conference. And I couldn’t be any more thankful.

Historic Heat Collapse Not Surprising

T Lamont — Fri, 04 Mar 2011 18:44:23 +0000

Get Shareaholic

Last night, the Miami Heat blew a third-quarter, 24-point advantage before losing a nationally-televised matchup to the visiting Orlando Magic.

While watching LeBron James and Dwyane Wade going through the motions of attempting to show genuine concern at the post-game press conference, I started to think to myself – this isn’t the first time that we’ve seen this with this team.

My mind started to think back less than a week ago. The Heat welcomed the most recent version of the Big Three – Amar’e Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups of the New York Knicks – into Miami for a highly anticipated showdown. The Heat held a double-digit lead in that game before folding in the end game.

Back on November 9, the Heat – once again at home – stormed out to another 20+ point edge only to see forward Paul Milsap have a career night and propel the Utah Jazz to an unbelievable triumph in overtime.

In between, there have been games in which the Heat have jumped out to sizeable leads and have done enough to manage to hold on.

And, of course, there’s the stat that has begun to rear its ugly head during almost every competitive Miami Heat game. The players who took their talents to South Beach are now 14-16 against teams with a record of .500 of better. That sounds very mediocre, doesn’t it? How could that be with a group as talented as this?

Very easily.

With two megastars on the roster, the Heat would seem to have an unyielding advantage against its opponents. But some significant truths have begun to surface about the most hyped team in decades:

The starting lineup is unbalanced. Sure, the Miami Heat have two of the best four individual players in the NBA. However, in essence, their skill set is duplicated. Miami is lacking an interior presence that would allow for a more natural spacing of the floor. A limited amount of production is coming from the point guard position, as well. But the defining attributes of centers and point guards is altogether missing from the Heat. A high skill level wouldn’t be expected with Wade and James on board, but serviceable characteristics should be. A center that can make his presence known in the paint, or a point guard with blazing quickness would make all the difference for this team’s ability to keep defenses honest.

Miami desperately needs Anthony to provide them with some solid defense and rebounding.

The Heat’s best players aren’t skilled, reliable shooters. For all of the abilities that LBJ and D-Wade possess, knockdown shooting is not one of them. And it shows up the most during clutch, end-of-game possessions. How many times has LeBron penetrated the defense, and then pitched it out to Wade – only to have him penetrate again? Or vice versa? It’s an unfortunate fact that these guys are out of their comfort zone when they are forced to simply catch and shoot. Contrast that with Boston’s best players, for example. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will absolutely destroy Boston’s opponents if they are given the slightest bit of daylight on the perimeter. Whether they truly believe in their abilities to be successful, Wade and James need to confidently shoot the basketball – and hope for the best.

Miami’s role players need to have bigger roles. It must be good to be Mike Miller. Or James Jones. Or Erick Dampier. Or Joel Anthony. Absolutely nothing is expected from those guys, and they get to play alongside the Big Three and receive nice-sized paychecks. But if the Heat truly have any aspirations of making serious noise in the postseason, Miami’s ‘other players’ have to be consistently incorporated into the flow of the offense. Yes, that would require Erik Spoelstra to do something other than let his two stars play pitch and catch. There have only been a select few players who could be counted on to nail clutch shots without having shot the ball all game – John Paxson, Steve Kerr and Robert Horry all come to mind. But that ability to the exception rather than the rule. Most players need to have a feeling of involvement in the game to have a chance to come up big at the end. Remember sharpshooter Mike Miller’s game-tying three-point attempt against the Celtics a few weeks back? Didn’t look so sharp, did he?

Erik Spoelstra’s team has no money plays within its offensive repertoire. This is huge. The Heat have had its share of nail-biters this season and, when challenging the league’s best, they have generally failed to produce points in game-defining situations. Due to their inability to effectively shoot the rock, defenses have been sagging down and limiting Wade’s and James’ scoring prowess. Opponents are forcing the All-Stars to beat them from the outside, which they have yet to do. Spoelstra is going to have to figure out what will work for this team, and implement it immediately. The young coach is in an unfortunate situation in South Beach. If the Heat come up big in the playoffs, the Big Three will get all of the credit for bringing Miami back from the ashes. But if Miami fails, then Spoelstra will be the one who is canned. So, it’s certainly in his best interest to devise a plan to increase his team’s productivity in the end game.