Who’s Going to Super Bowl XLVI??

Saturday 21 January, 2012 at 8:19 pm T Lamont 0

Who's going to be standing after Sunday's NFL conference showdowns?

Can Cruz continue his dancing around the vaunted San Francisco defense?

Based on expectations alone, one conference’s top teams lived up to the hype, while the other conference has yielded some pleasant surprises.

Which AFC team is going to follow through on those lofty projections?  And which roster will continue to be a stunning success from the NFC?

Let’s look at some of the determining factors of tomorrow’s conference title tilts:

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Defensive Pressure- Obviously, the outcome of this game will depend heavily upon the defensive pressure that Baltimore is able to get against Tom Brady.  No matter how good a team’s coverage is, Brady will eventually pick any set of linebackers, defensive backs and safeties as easy as McGyver would disarm an explosive.  So, the Ravens will need to mix up their pash rushes, conjure up different stunts and blitz packages to keep New England’s offensive line guessing.

Joe Flacco- Which Flacco will show up?  Will it be the cool and confident one who lets the game come to him?  Or will it be the one who feels as if he has to prove that he belongs in the elite category of quarterbacks?  Will the media focus on the comments that others have made about him force him to attempt to step out of his game?  This is undoubtedly Flacco’s time to shine, but he has to realize that his star illuminates differently than does, Tom Brady’s, for example.

Ray Rice- Rice, the unquestioned offensive MVP for the Ravens, averages 18 rushes and 5 receptions per game. Baltimore needs to execute its game plan through Rice, thus minimizing the number of possessions in this game. John Harbaugh should shoot for 25+ rushes for Rice, and focus on time of possession.

The Ravens' game plan should include a heavy dose of Ray Rice.

The Tight End Tandem- For the Patriots, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski would be part of the recipe for a successful afternoon. If these guys end up with big numbers on Sunday, it will more than likely be a sign that Baltimore was not able to contain Brady’s most dangerous weapons – as well as his easiest targets.

Nitty Gritty:We all know the tale of the tape with this matchup. It’s going to pit New England’s dynamic air attack…

- 32.1 points per game (3rd in NFL)
- 428 yards per game (2nd)
- 5257 passing yards (2nd)

…against Baltimore’s intimidating defense:

- 48 sacks (3rd in NFL)
- 16.6 points allowed per game (3rd)
- 289 yards allowed per game (3rd)

This will clearly be a matchup of tempo, but even more importantly, one of maturity. If Flacco can maintain his composure, Baltimore could score its most meaningful victory (outside of its 2000 Super Bowl season) in franchise history.

But given the stage, there will be limited room for error. And this scenario is not one that would favor this particular group of Ravens over this particular group of Patriots.

For that reason, as well as the others pointed out above, my vote goes with New England.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

Frank Gore vs ???- The Niners are a team that makes one thing clear: they are going to rush the football. Whether they rush it efficiently or not is not as important (to them) as is the fact that they set up a situation for Alex Smith to thrive in. Frank Gore is noted as one of the game’s toughest runners, and he has no counterpart in this key NFC Championship contest. It’s going to be interesting to see if the Giants are able to sustain drives, and who, if anyone, they will elect to be the featured back in tomorrow’s game.

Eli vs. the Niners Defense- San Francisco has a fast, aggressive, and perhaps more importantly, smart defense. They adapt well to the tendencies of their opponents, and would seemingly feast upon the unbalanced nature of the New York offense. The Niners lead the league in turnover margin (+28), so a one-dimensional offense could be in for a rude awakening against such a talented unit. The Giants have made it through two teams that have not played opportunistically on defense this season, and Manning’s decision-making will get thoroughly tested on Sunday. The younger Manning has improved his interception rate over last season, when he tossed a career-high 25, and his statistics (including his best-ever passing yards total) compare favorably to any of his previous seven NFL campaigns.

The Victor Cruz Experience- How much salsa dancing will Giants receiver Victor Cruz do on Sunday? Cruz has been a staple on the highlight reels this season due to his spectacular grabs. However, Cruz has been especially deadly for his creative abilities after the catch and consistently looks to get as many YAC as he can. But Cruz will have to be sure to watch the ball into his hands, as there have been occasions when he was clearly focused on what he would do after he caught the pass – only to see the ball on the ground. These opportunities cannot be missed versus the Niners.  His abilities will need to blend with receiving stud Hakeem Nicks and deep ball threat Mario Manningham to provide the pass-happy Giants offense with multiple timely targets.

Can Cruz continue his dancing around the vaunted San Francisco defense?

Jim Harbaugh- The rookie head coach deserves his own spotlight in this process. Harbaugh has his team fully drinking the Kool-Aid, and they totally believe in his system – and, just as significantly, in him. The Niners approach has maximized their talent by basing their offense off of the run, and getting big hitters through play action – to leverage the skills of Vernon Davis – because their opponents must respect Gore. On defense, they use the instincts and abilities of Patrick Willis to aggressively pursue the ball while other defenders can focus on their assignments. Harbaugh has effectively used the resources that have toiled in mediocrity over the past few seasons.

Nitty Gritty:The Niners have been a very disciplined team on both sides of the ball, thus contributing to their extremely high turnover margin. After dominating their NFC West division and validating that with a huge win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in primetime, San Fran began to turn a few heads. But with New Orleans being one of the NFL hottest teams, no one really saw their NFC Divisional round victory coming. They’ll have a much tougher time sneaking up on the Giants, who fought to get into the postseason and have played the underdog role in their first two contests. New York’s win in Green Bay proved that the Giants are not fazed by the stature of the venue, and that the supposed quality of the opponent will not affect what they are trying to accomplish.

With that in mind - and seemingly against all the quantifiable knowledge -I’m going with an encore of Super Bowl XLII…Patriots and Giants.


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