As is often the case during March Madness, this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament has been a medley of unexpected surprises and excellence.

‘Bracketeers’ (those who dare to fill out tourney brackets) often realize the basic principles of the task:

1. Have a good grasp on who are truly the best teams in the nation.

Coming into the Big Dance, the two teams that were most often cited as favorites by analysts across the nation were Ohio State and Kansas.  And after the first full weekend of games, they still stand head and shoulders above the rest of the field.

Ohio State totally obliterated its first two opponents – Texas-San Antonio and George Mason – by a combined total of 61 points.  The Buckeyes looked about as sharp as a team could look in its first two games (albeit they were against non-challenging foes).  OSU will receive its first true test on Friday when it battles Kentucky.  But based on this weekend’s performances, the Buckeyes - assuming that they play with purpose and focus – should come out on top.

Kansas showed us that its inside brother tandem will make them very tough to beat.  Marcus and Markeith Morris took over in the second half of Sunday night’s game, providing the Jayhawks with some distance between themselves and the Fighting Illini.  Bill Self’s plan is to use his team’s size to wear down it’s opponents, and it has worked in two games that were closer than anticipated.  At initial glance, Kansas - as a byproduct of the upsets in the Southwest Region -  has appeared to land an easier path to the Final Four.

When looking at the big picture, it’s important to single out the more complete teams (offensively and defensively) from those that has glaring weaknesses which can be exploited.

2. Figure out where to take chances on upset picks.

In the NCAA tournament, it’s not a matter of if upsets happen, but rather when they happen.  Therefore, correctly picking upset wins usually represents the difference between winning and losing in a bracket pool.  So, what’s the best way to predict upsets?

Well, if there was a concrete method, they really couldn’t be termed as upsets…now could they?  But from a logical standpoint, there is a way to make surprise choices that make sense.  A prime place to examine the potential for these picks is in the first round.  In most pools, points for correct selections increase as the tournament progresses – so, it’s traditionally best to go for these picks while the potential damage to your overall point total is relatively low.  But in groups that more heavily reward victories by lower-seeded teams, the potential for additional points may well be worth the risk.  For example, in this year’s opening round of 64, there were seven teams that pulled off such upsets.  Removing the sure-fire #1-, #2- and #3-seeded teams in each region yields a startling fact: 35% of the questionable first-round contests were won by the lower-seeded team.

The best formula is to pick upsets against those teams that you believe will not make it into the Sweet Sixteen.  Employing this method should ensure that you keep your point loss to a minimum, while giving the potential for a bigger payoff for a correct upset prediction.

Brandon Rozzell's attacking style is one of the reasons that VCU is in the Sweet Sixteen.

3. Realize that wins and losses are based on matchups, especially in a one-and-done tournament format.

Regular season team success is great, but often times, units that have the most versatile players end up on top.  Programs containing the appropriate combinations of height, speed and skill are usually not strangers to going deep in the Big Dance.  It’s extremely important to note how individual players compare with one another, and whether they can be effective in a given matchup.

Take, for example, Notre Dame’s upset loss to Florida State.  It would be easy to come to the conclusion that the Fighting Irish was off of their game on Sunday, but that would be a blatant generalization.  The Seminoles have one of the premier defenses in the nation, and their perimeter athleticism and interior size kept the Irish frustrated the entire evening.

Another example would be Richmond’s win over Vanderbilt.  Vandy is a team built with lots of dependency on its perimeter scorers (John Jenkins and Jeffrey Taylor), and only Jenkins showed up.  Taylor was 1-10 from the field.  Couple that with the Spiders’ ability to effectively connect on the long ball – five Richmond players made at least one three-point field goal – and the recipe for an upset was on the menu. 

Of course, all of this is much easier said than done.  My bracket looks like a train wreck right now.  It’s certainly a totally different ballgame when it comes to putting these principles into practice. 

And that is undoubtedly what makes the Big Dance as special as it is.

T Lamont is the owner, administrator and author of all content for Ball or Nuthin\'. Feel free to contact T Lamont with a question or comment at ballornuthin@gmail.com.  All created Ball or Nuthin' content is the sole property of T Lamont. Read more from this author