NBA Western Conference Playoff Analysis

Friday 08 April, 2011 at 10:56 am T Lamont 0

Shannon Brown's contribution is part of the Lakers' "ABC's" to three-peating.


We’ve already taken a tour through the Eastern Conference, and its potential showdowns.

Now, it’s time to do the same with the west side. And admittedly, this will be a much easier process.

As the NBA prepares to embark upon another postseason, there’s a good chance that Laker haters will be disappointed yet again.  That’s because – just like the previous three seasons – the Western Conference crown is basically the Lakers’ to lose.  Here’s why:

Continuity – With the exception of Ron Artest swapping places with Trevor Ariza, the meaningful pieces within the Lakers’ lineup have remained unchanged.  Their time together has undoubtedly produced a certain level of comfort with each other which other teams lack. 

Experience – Bryant, Gasol, Bynum, Odom and Fisher provide the Lakers with a boatload of big game experience.  Their ability to execute under the pressures of the postseason has already been tested.

Healthy – Los Angeles is coasting into the playoffs, with a relatively clean bill of health.  The champs are about as close to full strength as an organization could hope to be at this point in the year.

Momentum – L.A. has won seven straight, and 16 of their last 17.  In a nutshell, they are playing great ball at the best possible time.

While the Lakers have the inside track on their fourth consecutive Western Conference title,  Phil Jackson will have to make sure that they recall the ABC’s of their team’s success:

“A” is for Artest – After being an enigma for the vast majority of the campaign, Ron-Ron has played inspired hoops on both sides of the floor of late.  Jackson will have the unenviable challenge of keeping Artest interested and focused throughout their run.

“B” is for Bench Play – The Western Conference favorites are just that despite some very spotty bench play.  Lamar Odom, who would be a starter on any other club, is obviously an ace off the bench.  Shannon Brown, who began the season on a tear (including 17 double-figure scoring games prior to Christmas), has fallen on hard times of late.  The 6’4″ guard, who scored above his season average six times in February, has only done so twice in March.  The rest of the Lakers’ reserves have been space fillers.  Players like Steve Blake and Matt Barnes have to do more than start trouble (as they did recently against Dallas).

“C” is for Counteract – While the Lakers sometimes settle for slowing things down, they must take full advantage of opportunities to push the ball.  L.A. plays best when its offense is free-flowing, and the ball is moving quickly.  The champs must avoid complacency because Kobe Bryant’s instincts to try and single-handedly win games will kick in.  And they’ll become vulnerable.

Although Phil Jackson’s crew hold the clear edge, there are other teams in the Western Conference.  Let’s take a look at the remaining playoff teams in the conference from most threatening to least (from L.A.’s perspective):

Ibaka (pictured) and Perkins provide the Thunder with great interior defense and rebounding.

Oklahoma City Thunder- This may be a bit surprising, but, yes, they do edge out the San Antonio Spurs.  Why?  Besides experience, the Thunder have all of the key components of a future title contender.  They have a top notch scorer and MVP candidate in ‘the Durantula’.  They have a game-breaking point guard who creates mismatches on a nightly basis in Russell Westbrook.  They have bench support in James Harden (12.0 ppg), Daequan Cook (three-point specialist) and Eric Maynor (capable, skilled backup point guard). 

But perhaps most importantly, Oklahoma City has the big bodies that can physically match up with the Lakers.  Nick Collison, Serge Ibaka and Nazr Mohammed formed a serviceable trio in the Thunder frontcourt, but the addition of Kendrick Perkins really gives them quality depth. 

So, Scott Brooks’ team is only some quality experience away from catching the Lake Show.

San Antonio Spurs- Rightfully, the Spurs have moved past the ‘Tim Duncan era’, and into the ‘Tony Parker-George Hill-Manu Ginobili era’.  San Antonio has upped its tempo, and has reaped the benefits of making the adjustment.  What remains questionable is exactly how this will translate into postseason basketball.  Duncan has traditionally been the playoff workhorse, and how Gregg Popovich elects to use him this time around will be quite interesting.

The Spurs got manhandled by the Lakers in their latest Sunday ABC showdown (March 6), by a score that actually belittled the degree to which Los Angeles dominated the contest.  They’ll tussle on April 12 in L.A. in a matchup that both teams will either use as a statement, or render meaningless and rest their big minute players.  Regardless, the Spurs chances of dethroning the Lakers revolve around their ability to control the game’s tempo.  And as we saw with Phoenix in last year’s conference finals, that’s a game plan that will only work for so long.

Dallas Mavericks- The Mavericks and Lakers engaged in a heated battle last Thursday night.  Dallas was nip and tuck with Los Angeles in the Staples center for more than two and a half quarters of the game.  In the third quarter, the contest took a turn and became more physical.  On a drive to the bucket, Steve Blake was fouled by Jason Terry.  In an act of frustration, Blake was effortlessly shoved to the ground by the Mavs second leading scorer.  Blake returned to his feet, and got nose to nose with Terry – and the fireworks began to spark.  Matt Barnes, who seems to be useless otherwise, came to life and found a way to get tossed from the game.

From that point forward, the Lakers ran away with the game.  They got physical and Dallas had no answer.  It was almost as if the Mavs were punked.  In fact, that’s exactly what it was.  When Chris Webber calls a team ”soft”…well, they’re pretty much soft. 

Everyone knows that the Mavs aren’t a serious contender for the Western title.  The Lakers know it.  The Mavs know it.  You know it.  I know it.  And C-Webb knows it.

By virtue of their combined experience, size and/or talent, the remaining playoff teams in the West just can’t compete.  Here’s the rest of the participants:

Denver Nuggets – While the Thunder might be the team that matches up best with the champs, their seeding (probably in the fourth spot) will subject them to a tough first-round battle.  In what could be the most playoff series that we’ve seen in some time, the Thunder and Nuggets are more than likely going to square off in an opening round Western Conference series. 

It’s become a well-versed topic these days that George Karl’s crew is better without Carmelo Anthony.  It’s an assessment that is easily proven from a quantitative perspective – the Nuggets are 14-4 in their last 18 games.  Of those four losses, only one came against a potential non-playoff opponent (L.A. Clippers).  The Nuggets held their own in their last three games – beating L.A. and Dallas, while losing to OKC.  But they seem to be a team that is much more relaxed since dealing a player who everyone thinks is one of the top five in the league.  All I have to say is that if you get rid of a top five player, you should in no way be a better team.  But somehow, the Nuggets are. 

New Orleans Hornets – Like a penny with a hole in it?  That’s about how hopeless the Hornets are in this year’s postseason.  David West is gone.  Sure, Carl Landry can fill most of the productivity void left by West.  Chris Paul runs things for the Hornets, but his lack of size brings about the need for another scorer who can always get off his shots.  Landry cannot give New Orleans clutch offensive play, and he does not have the ability to carry his team for long stretches. 

Oh, and the Hornets are playing either the Lakers or the Mavs  to open the postseason.  These are both too tough for a team missing a top scorer.

Portland Trailblazers – Nate McMillan better not have his team cruise to the finish line of the regular season.  His Blazers are well equipped to make some playoff noise, particularly if they fight to the finish and get the #6 position in the conference.  That would probably mean a date with Dallas, a much preferred opponent than Los Angeles.  Unlike New Orleans, Portland would have a real chance at taking down the Mavericks and advancing to the semifinals.  In fact, I think that the Blazers could really be the favorites in that series. 

Batum is part of a lengthy frontcourt that can match up with any team.

Portland has an experienced backcourt with Andre Miller and the ‘mature-beyond-his-years’ Wesley Matthews.  They also have great frontcourt length in Marcus Camby, LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum.  The bench has been boosted with the likes of a deteriorated Brandon Roy, the versatile Rudy Fernandez, and a trade-deadline steal in Gerald Wallace.  Beware Dallas – you may experience yet another first-round flame out.

Memphis Grizzlies- Finally!  The talented team clinched a spot in the playoffs for the first time in years, thanks to Zach Randolph.  Did I really just say that?  Not long ago, Randolph was labeled as borderline thug, and as a clear disruptive force to any team that he played on.  But Z-Bo has proven to be the glue that has helped Memphis overcome many potential pitfalls:

  • a huge injury to starter and All-Star talent Rudy Gay
  • roster juggling – including the pick-up of Shane Battier, moving of O.J. Mayo to the bench and increased minutes for Tony Allen
  • a team loaded with lesser experienced players

Given what he’s done for the Grizzlies this season, Randolph should be worried.  Not making the All-Star team this time around might mean that he’ll be hard pressed to ever make it.  He gives Memphis a degree of toughness that will be required against San Antonio (in their anticipated first-round series).  Of course, the Spurs will get the job done.  Having a workhorse like Allen and the experience of Battier is nice, but not having a creative, athletic talent – and big shot maker (listen to the crowd after the swish) - on the wing will be a killer.  But hey – Memphis took a leap forward this season, and they should be able to build on it. 


T Lamont is the owner, administrator and author of all content for Ball or Nuthin\'. Feel free to contact T Lamont with a question or comment at ballornuthin@gmail.com.  All created Ball or Nuthin' content is the sole property of T Lamont. Read more from this author



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