So far, the Heat are making me look like I know what I’m talking about.

With Boston’s trading of Kendrick Perkins and blowout loss to Miami late in the season, it seemed that the confidence that the Heat needed to topple the Celtics had finally taken shape.

Miami’s 99-90 opening game win in the Eastern Conference Semifinals was notable for several distinct reasons:

1. Dwyane Wade proved that the poor shooting bug that hampered him in many of their earlier battles was a thing of the past. Wade attacked early and often, and helped the Heat soar to a sizable advantage. When Boston trimmed the deficit – as we all expected that they would – D-Wade returned to enable Miami hold on to their cushion and close the game. His dominance in this game was particularly important because it sends a strong message to Doc Rivers and his coaching staff – that LeBron James is not the only player on which your defensive gameplan should be concentrated.

Boston needs to get more production than six points out of K.G.

2. Chris Bosh (7 pts., 12 rebs., 1 blk.) and Kevin Garnett (6 pts., 8 rebs., 3 asts.) basically played to a stalemate. This is clearly a matchup that the Celtics desperately need to win. So, in Game 1, this was easily won by Miami. If the Celtics think that Bosh is a bit on the soft side (as most of the NBA-watching public does), Boston needs to exploit that to try and own the paint. With Perkins in OKC, Shaq keeping the media on edge with his health status and Jermaine O’Neal not an intimidating factor, K.G. is vital to the Celtics’ success in this series. Add to that the fact that their most productive frontcourt player is Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis – who wishes his listed height of 6’9″ was really true – and it becomes clear that protecting the rim could be a problem for them. And by the way, Davis had the worst plus-minus of any player that took the floor today (-21).

3. The Celtics can’t lose their cool. The one thing that Boston has always seemed to have in its pocket has been the ability to keep its composure. Whether the fourth quarter calls were correct or not, they were questionable enough that Paul Pierce had to maintain his focus if the Green Guys were to stand any chance at pulling off a late stunner in American Airlines Arena. Instead, Pierce picked up two techs. He was gone, and so were the Celtics chances of stealing Game One because…

4. Did Rajon Rondo even suit up today? The point guard position is the one spot that Boston should have an undisputed edge. Rondo is a guard with game-changing speed and quickness, understated intelligence and clutch abilities. His performance failed to represent what he is capable of, and that is certainly unacceptable in critical postseason games like this one. Granted, he is handicapped by his inconsistent shooting range (3-10 FGs), but he committed almost as many turnovers as assists (5 to 7) and only managed to get to the line twice. Rivers has to get more aggression out of him in Game Two.

Jones was spot-on for Miami in Game One.

5. The Miami Heat found that guy. Throughout the season, analysts agreed that on a roster with two of the game’s best slasher, someone would ultimately be required to knock down shots from the perimeter. Miami tried their hand with several options – Mike Miller, Eddie House, Mike Bibby – hoping that catching and shooting would be easy enough for them. However, it was James Jones, a little known swingman with great range, who made his presence felt the most – peaking with him winning this year’s Three Point Shootout. Jones stepped up today in a huge way. He scored 25 points, was 5-7 from the field (all triples) and, perhaps even more importantly, found a way to take ten free throws…making them all. Jones was easily the difference-maker in the series opener.

For Game Two, as Rivers indicated in his post-game interview, his team has to take care of the ball. Boston committed 14 turnovers (5 from Rondo, as mentioned earlier), which was actually two less than Miami. However, the Heat were aggressive with its chances and the Celtics are not equipped to contain them on the break.

In the same breath, Boston must realize that it cannot get behind. While Miami has been noted for giving up big leads, this Celtic team is one that cannot count on its defense in the same manner that it has in the past. Rivers has to encourage his team to counterpunch the Heat. Specifically, Boston needs to take advantage of break-out opportunities – including the creation of early offensive scores from Rondo.

The initial game plans for each team will remain the same, but somehow Game Two will hold the potential for even more fireworks.

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