Ball or Nuthin' » NFL

Who’s Going to Super Bowl XLVI??

T Lamont — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 01:19:32 +0000

Based on expectations alone, one conference’s top teams lived up to the hype, while the other conference has yielded some pleasant surprises.

Which AFC team is going to follow through on those lofty projections? And which roster will continue to be a stunning success from the NFC?

Let’s look at some of the determining factors of tomorrow’s conference title tilts:

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Defensive Pressure- Obviously, the outcome of this game will depend heavily upon the defensive pressure that Baltimore is able to get against Tom Brady. No matter how good a team’s coverage is, Brady will eventually pick any set of linebackers, defensive backs and safeties as easy as McGyver would disarm an explosive. So, the Ravens will need to mix up their pash rushes, conjure up different stunts and blitz packages to keep New England’s offensive line guessing.

Joe Flacco- Which Flacco will show up? Will it be the cool and confident one who lets the game come to him? Or will it be the one who feels as if he has to prove that he belongs in the elite category of quarterbacks? Will the media focus on the comments that others have made about him force him to attempt to step out of his game? This is undoubtedly Flacco’s time to shine, but he has to realize that his star illuminates differently than does, Tom Brady’s, for example.

Ray Rice- Rice, the unquestioned offensive MVP for the Ravens, averages 18 rushes and 5 receptions per game. Baltimore needs to execute its game plan through Rice, thus minimizing the number of possessions in this game. John Harbaugh should shoot for 25+ rushes for Rice, and focus on time of possession.

The Ravens' game plan should include a heavy dose of Ray Rice.

The Tight End Tandem- For the Patriots, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski would be part of the recipe for a successful afternoon. If these guys end up with big numbers on Sunday, it will more than likely be a sign that Baltimore was not able to contain Brady’s most dangerous weapons – as well as his easiest targets.

Nitty Gritty:We all know the tale of the tape with this matchup. It’s going to pit New England’s dynamic air attack…

- 32.1 points per game (3rd in NFL)
- 428 yards per game (2nd)
- 5257 passing yards (2nd)

…against Baltimore’s intimidating defense:

- 48 sacks (3rd in NFL)
- 16.6 points allowed per game (3rd)
- 289 yards allowed per game (3rd)

This will clearly be a matchup of tempo, but even more importantly, one of maturity. If Flacco can maintain his composure, Baltimore could score its most meaningful victory (outside of its 2000 Super Bowl season) in franchise history.

But given the stage, there will be limited room for error. And this scenario is not one that would favor this particular group of Ravens over this particular group of Patriots.

For that reason, as well as the others pointed out above, my vote goes with New England.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

Frank Gore vs ???- The Niners are a team that makes one thing clear: they are going to rush the football. Whether they rush it efficiently or not is not as important (to them) as is the fact that they set up a situation for Alex Smith to thrive in. Frank Gore is noted as one of the game’s toughest runners, and he has no counterpart in this key NFC Championship contest. It’s going to be interesting to see if the Giants are able to sustain drives, and who, if anyone, they will elect to be the featured back in tomorrow’s game.

Eli vs. the Niners Defense- San Francisco has a fast, aggressive, and perhaps more importantly, smart defense. They adapt well to the tendencies of their opponents, and would seemingly feast upon the unbalanced nature of the New York offense. The Niners lead the league in turnover margin (+28), so a one-dimensional offense could be in for a rude awakening against such a talented unit. The Giants have made it through two teams that have not played opportunistically on defense this season, and Manning’s decision-making will get thoroughly tested on Sunday. The younger Manning has improved his interception rate over last season, when he tossed a career-high 25, and his statistics (including his best-ever passing yards total) compare favorably to any of his previous seven NFL campaigns.

The Victor Cruz Experience- How much salsa dancing will Giants receiver Victor Cruz do on Sunday? Cruz has been a staple on the highlight reels this season due to his spectacular grabs. However, Cruz has been especially deadly for his creative abilities after the catch and consistently looks to get as many YAC as he can. But Cruz will have to be sure to watch the ball into his hands, as there have been occasions when he was clearly focused on what he would do after he caught the pass – only to see the ball on the ground. These opportunities cannot be missed versus the Niners. His abilities will need to blend with receiving stud Hakeem Nicks and deep ball threat Mario Manningham to provide the pass-happy Giants offense with multiple timely targets.

Can Cruz continue his dancing around the vaunted San Francisco defense?

Jim Harbaugh- The rookie head coach deserves his own spotlight in this process. Harbaugh has his team fully drinking the Kool-Aid, and they totally believe in his system – and, just as significantly, in him. The Niners approach has maximized their talent by basing their offense off of the run, and getting big hitters through play action – to leverage the skills of Vernon Davis – because their opponents must respect Gore. On defense, they use the instincts and abilities of Patrick Willis to aggressively pursue the ball while other defenders can focus on their assignments. Harbaugh has effectively used the resources that have toiled in mediocrity over the past few seasons.

Nitty Gritty:The Niners have been a very disciplined team on both sides of the ball, thus contributing to their extremely high turnover margin. After dominating their NFC West division and validating that with a huge win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in primetime, San Fran began to turn a few heads. But with New Orleans being one of the NFL hottest teams, no one really saw their NFC Divisional round victory coming. They’ll have a much tougher time sneaking up on the Giants, who fought to get into the postseason and have played the underdog role in their first two contests. New York’s win in Green Bay proved that the Giants are not fazed by the stature of the venue, and that the supposed quality of the opponent will not affect what they are trying to accomplish.

With that in mind - and seemingly against all the quantifiable knowledge -I’m going with an encore of Super Bowl XLII…Patriots and Giants.

Elway Needs To Know When To Fold’ Em

T Lamont — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 05:27:12 +0000

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There’s nothing worse than somebody who won’t admit that they’re wrong.

Well, I take that back…

There’s nothing worse than somebody that will make you think they’re OK with being proven wrong, but won’t fully admit it.

OK, let’s try one more time…

There’s nothing worse than a former NFL quarterback who took most of his career to validate his worth turned Chief of Football Operations who won’t admit that he’s been proven wrong, but won’t fully admit it.

During a recent news conference held by the Denver Broncos, John Elway relented to the fact that Tim Tebow has “earned the right to be the starting quarterback going into training camp next year.”

But was there ever any debate? Should there be one?

Elway was noted for attacking Tebow in the press earlier in the season. After a 2-1 record as the starter, including 2 road wins, Elway called Tebow’s status as “week-to-week”. Elway was more focused on discussing Tebow’s shortcomings- his mechanics and how he can help Denver gett better in the passing game.

What the legendary quarterback is failing to realize is that all teams are better offensively in one facet of the game than the other.

In his two-year tenure, Tebow has done all that he can to endear himself to his teammates.

One would only have to look as far as the top teams in the NFL today:

Green Bay Packers – Passing: 308 ypg (3rd); Rushing: 97 ypg (27th)
New Orleans Saints – Passing: 334 ypg (1st); Rushing: 133 ypg (6th)
New England Patriots – Passing: 318 ypg (2nd); Rushing: 110 ypg (20th)
Baltimore Ravens – Passing: 214 ypg (19th); Rushing: 125 ypg (10th)
New York Giants – Passing: 296 ypg (5th); Rushing: 89 ypg (32nd)
San Francisco 49ers – Passing: 183 ypg (30th); Rushing: 128 ypg (8th)

There’s hardly ever a magical balance between teams’ passing and rushing games, instead it’s about developing plays that can get the needed yards in various situations.

An executive and former player like Elway knows this (or at least he should), but he seems to be content on being much too objective in his criticisms of Tebow, who has become a media darling of sorts.

But, perhaps, the Hall of Famer isn’t being objective enough. His analysis of Tebow should begin and end with what he has been able to accomplish – in a relatively short period of time, and under his duress – compared to his peers. A second year quarterback with fewer than double figure starts, the Florida product was the driving force behind the Broncos’ playoff appearance. Not only did Tebow lead them there, but he orchestrated a victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers – an annual playoff participant with loads of big game experience. In essence, it took Tebow one shot to do what the Baltimore Ravens haven’t been able to for the past few seasons: beat the Steelers when it counts most.

Bottom line – it’s time for Elway to be as excited about Tebow future in Denver as the fans are.

T Lamont’s Top 10 NFL Teams – Week 16

T Lamont — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 04:47:59 +0000

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10. Dallas Cowboys- Although the Eagles and the Giants have not been mathematically eliminated from the postseason, the ‘Boys appear to be in firm control of the NFC East. They are in the driver’s seat, but they have been less than impressive – particularly on the defensive end. Rob Ryan’s unit has remained in the spotlight for blown coverages and mental lapses..not a good sign for Dallas’ 2011 playoff outlook.

9. Detroit Lions- Once again, Detroit proved its worth in late-game situations. The Lions have shown resilience all season, but perhaps a bit too much for their own good. Hidden in the fact that they’ve outscored their opponents by 105 in the second half is the reality that they’ve scored 45 fewer first-half points than their foes. Their comebacks have been epic, but a quick playoff stay may be looming should they allow themselves to assume a healthy deficit in the Wild Card round.

8. Atlanta Falcons- The Falcons are playing as good as they have all season, going into a monumental matchup with division foe New Orleans. Atlanta has exhibited good balance – with Michael Turner and Roddy White rushing and receiving for over 1100 yards, respectively. The key to Atlanta’s success will be protecting Matt Ryan. When he is able to execute the Falcons’ play action passing game plan with confidence, Atlanta’s offense hits another level of effectiveness. Look for the Falcons to pound the New Orleans defense early with a heavy dose of Turner.

Will Yates be able to lead the Texans to a playoff win?

7. Houston Texans- After losing to Baltimore in Week 6, it appeared that the Texans had a realistic shot at ending the season on a 10-game winning streak. That is, until they got unexpectedly handled by the Panthers this past week. Houston should be able to recover to post a 12-win season, which translates to about 2-3 games better than analysts projected. And although it seems that they finally put it all together, it remains unfortunate that Matt Schaub is still out of the mix. But getting to the postseason means that the franchise can shift its focus to the next step – getting mentally tough players who can foster some level of playoff success.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers- Amid the Niners dominating performance in Monday Night Football, a chink in the Pittsburgh armor was revealed. If a defense is fast and strong enough to stuff Rashad Mendenhall and the Steelers running game, it can force Roethlisberger into believing that he is a better playmaker than he is. There’s no doubt that Big Ben has the enviable knack for stretching out plays to hit home runs. However, the problem lies with his perception that his skill level exceeds that of what it really is, culminating in turnovers that become the decisive factors in important games against opportunistic teams.

5. Baltimore Ravens- I’ve reamed the Ravens for most of the season for their inexplicable lapses in concentration, so…their last beatdown by San Diego was far from unusual. But barring another of those lapses over the closing two weeks, Baltimore should finish with 12 victories for the second straight campaign. This will mark the Ravens’ fifth playoff appearance in the past six seasons, and their looking to finally make some real noise in the postseason since 2000. However, their inconsistency is the most compelling piece of evidence that suggests the more things change, the more they’ll stay the same with this bunch.

4. San Francisco Niners- Jim Harbuagh’s team couldn’t have come up with a more signature win in an impressive season. Sure, the Niners beat up on their own conference, as well as going 3-1 against the NFC East, but their chance to upend a top-caliber team slipped by them in Week 12 as Ravens posted a 16-6 victory over them in Baltimore. Dominating the Steelers provides San Fran with the justification that they can’t receive from embarrassing the drab teams in the NFC West.

Brees has the Saints in familiar territory - headed into the postseason playing some impressive football.

3. New England Patriots- Well, the Tebow showcase came to a grinding halt at Sports Authority Field on Sunday, but it wasn’t because of what Tebow did. It was because of what he couldn’t do. He couldn’t stop the Patriots offense from going ballistic in the second quarter, disposing of Denver’s hard-earned 16-7 advantage. New England has scored 30 plus points in their last six contest, which, by the way, all happen to be wins. They are playing like a well-oiled machine, and even Ochocinco showed up and caught a meaningful pass against the Broncos.

2. New Orleans Saints- Speaking of well-oiled machines, the Saints are clearly feeling good about themselves right now. And if they’re not, well, they should be. They’re second in the league in scoring (32.6 ppg; I’m sure you can guess who’s first) and they’re first in offensive yards per game (457 ypg). New Orleans has won six in a row, and square off against the Falcons in a game that means more to their opponents than it does to them. Unfortunately for Atlanta, this game will be played in the Superdome, where the Saints are 6-0 this season…and just happen to be outscoring their foes by an average of 22 points. Let’s hope the Falcon defenders are well-rested coming into this game.

1. Green Bay Packers- Finally, Green Bay was a regular team for one week. It was bound to happen. But against a team as offensively challenged as the Chiefs? Granted, Kansas City had just picked up Kyle Orton (a significant upgrade over Tyler Palko), but most would have predicted that the Packers would score 14, and maybe even 21, in the opening quarter of Sunday’s game. Regardless, the Pack’s body of work over the first 14 weeks of the season were more than enough to hold them through one loss. But what if Green Bay falters against Chicago and/or in Detroit, while the Saints smash the Falcons or the Pats win out? Who knows. It would clearly be a travesty for Green Bay to lose its incredible momentum in the home stretch of the year. After all, it was momentum that carried a 10-6 Wild Card team to an unanticipated NFL Championship last year.

Three Keys to Patriots Win Over Jets

T Lamont — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 06:16:33 +0000

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Although Sunday Night Football presented the New York Jets with a chance to take control of the AFC East, the outcome was a bit on the predictable side.

The New England Patriots outclassed the Jets with a dominant second-half performance, and cruised to a 37-16 road victory to avoid its first three-game losing streak in nearly a decade.

Rex Ryan and his crew kept the contest close in the opening half, keeping the game manageable and trailing by only four points at intermission. But things swung in favor of the visitors, thanks to the following occurrences that sealed New York’s fate:

Rob Gronkowski was an unguardable force.

While Aaron Hernandez has had his nights in the limelight, Rob Gronkowski was the unmatchable tight end tonight. He ended with eight catches for 113 yards and two TDs (a number that could have been higher if not for stepping out of bounds during the play, and an offensive penalty). Tight end are usually in the quarterback’s initial line of sight, and are thus regarded as the easiest receiving targets on the field. With a quality passer like Brady you can be sure that the throws are that much easier than they would be for an average QB, and he took full advantage.

New York turnovers gave the Patriots the cushion that it needed.

After a relatively mistake-free first half, the Jets play was not so sharp when they came out of the locker room. Joe McKnight’s major-league punt muff – which somehow hit his chest but didn’t touch his hands – set the Patriots up with instant field goal position. A New England penalty saved the Jets from giving up seven, but New York continued to operate in a gift-giving mood. In the ensuing possession, Mark Sanchez attempted a check-down pass to LaDainian Tomlinson. The pass had a little too much heat for L.T., slipped through his hands, off of a defender, and finally into the hands of linebacker Rob Ninkovich (who picked off two passes on the night). Three minutes later – thanks to Brady and Rob Gronkowski – the Pats had posted another seven on the board as they began to separate themselves from New York.

Brady unleashed his football IQ on Rex Ryan and the Jets tonight.

Tom Brady showed off his top-notch quarterbacking pedigree.

With the Jets attempting to knock on the door of a comeback, Brady showed us why he is viewed as an elite signal caller in the NFL. The two-time MVP brilliantly used the no-huddle to victimize the Jets defense. Brady got his offense to the line quickly, surveyed the New York defensive personnel, and then audibled according to what he saw. He effortlessly toggled between pounding the ball on the ground and connecting through the air to march the Pats down the gridiron. The result: a 13-play, 84-yard drive that gave the visitors a two-touchdown lead that crushed the Jets’ short-lived momentum and effectively sealed the game in favor of New England.

Bears Withstand Third Quarter Flurry, Top Eagles

T Lamont — Tue, 08 Nov 2011 05:48:37 +0000

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Lovie Smith and his Chicago Bears followed the “how to defeat the Philadelphia Eagles” blueprint to a tee.

They got out to the early lead. Matt Forte provided a strong ground game. Jay Cutler didn’t get careless with his pass attempts. Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs and Julius Peppers didn’t allow Michael Vick to run wild.

But Chicago almost let go of this one, relinquishing the lead to Philadelphia in the third quarter. Cutler rallied his troops and comfortably marched down the field to resume the advantage.

What were the keys to the victory?

Matt Forte’s elusiveness.

Forte, who currently has the most yards from scrimmage in the NFL, gave Philly’s defense fits tonight. Forte rushed for 133 yards on 24 carries, and probably collected two-thirds of them after breaking a tackle or absorbing contact. Forte wore out the Eagles’ defense, and helped neutralize a usually aggressive Philly pass rush.

Linebacker containment and pursuit.

Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher roamed sideline-to-sideline to ensure that Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy didn’t get any clean runs on the perimeter. Even defensive end Julius Peppers snuffed out a couple of potential Vick scrambles.

Julius Peppers worked hard to keep Michael Vick under wraps on Monday night.

Cutler’s cool demeanor.

For the entire contest, Jay Cutler was very well-protected and made just about all of the right decisions. Cutler did not get rattled by the Philly pressure, and repressed his urge to take unnecessary chances. Cutler did not get sacked tonight – a fact that contributed to Jay’s relaxed performance.

Eagles playmakers held in check.

Desean Jackson (2 catches, 16 yards), LeSean McCoy (16 rushes, 72 yards) and Michael Vick (213 yards passing, 1 INT, 34 yards rushing) were limited by the veteran Chicago defense. Philadelphia is a home run hitting team, and the Bears were clearly content to give Philly the small stuff and focus on the preventing the big plays.

The Chicago win kept them one game behind the Lions – their NFL North competitors – and in full striking distance for the upcoming playoff stretch.

As for the Eagles – well, they fall to three games behind the division-leading Giants. And those playoff hopes are, indeed, fading away.